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KUALA LUMPUR – With Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) harping on the narrative of political stability as the endgame for having a snap election in Johor, analysts and an opposition politician instead believe their intentions are far more deeply-rooted than it appears.
Even as Johor Umno leaders themselves attribute the need to return the mandate to the people as sufficient reason to call for polls, others see it as a calculated political manoeuvre by leaders on the party’s hierarchy in a move to stamp their authority in Umno.
Among the Umno personalities who have been openly endorsing the idea of statewide polls is party vice-president Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin. He has been candid about the need to reassert political stability within the state government, especially expressed on social media.
Khaled has also remained consistent in his stance that the people’s mandate must be returned through the ballot box, even reaffirming his point when contacted by The Vibes.
However, when pressed to comment on the notion of polls in Johor being a mere smokescreen for disputes higher up the leadership chain, Khaled declined to comment.
He did say that he finds it normal for parties to begin preparing for any polls since the last general election was held more than three years ago but again stopped short of mentioning when he expects Johoreans to go to the ballot boxes.
“It has been three and a half years since the last election, so (the upcoming) election is getting nearer. So, (it’s) normal for any party to make preparations,” he told The Vibes.
In his recent Facebook post, Khaled said early polls are the best solution for the state government to avoid getting destabilised, either by threats from those within their makeshift coalitions or causal effects of federal consensus signed by the Prime Minister and Umno vice president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob with the opposition.
“Return the mandate to the people,” he said briefly when asked on the best solution to obtain political stability in Johor.
Asked if their calls for polls in Johor are to catapult their position on the back of their landslide performance in Melaka, Khaled again declined to comment, saying instead “there are many factors to be considered before holding an election”.
Johor DAP chief Liew Chin Tong, meanwhile, expressed to The Vibes a contrasting view, claiming that the calls from Umno for polls in Johor are part of manoeuvring by party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who is convicted for graft, to ensure their political longevity.
Liew said this is being done by applying more pressure onto Ismail Sabri to dissolve Parliament to pave the way for the 15th general election if Zahid and Najib can engineer a victory in Johor similar to their landslide performance in Melaka.
“In actual fact, there is no need for the menteri besar to request for the Sultan to dissolve the (state legislative) assembly. Johor Pakatan Harapan (PH) has openly committed not to cause the fall of the state government led by Datuk Hasni Mohammad.
“Therefore, if a snap poll is called, it is all because of Umno’s power game,” Liew said.
However, he emphasised that if an election is triggered, the opposition is committed to defending all its seats and possibly snatching several from those in the current administration.
Umno’s game all the way
Analysts speaking to The Vibes provided views similar to Liew’s. Singapore Institute of International Affairs’ senior fellow Oh Ei Sun concurred that the ongoing power struggle within Umno is a major factor behind their calls for polls in the southern state.
Oh pointed to factions formed around the embattled duo of Zahid and Najib looking to oust those aligned with Ismail – behind the veil of calls for the Johor polls – as the source of the power struggle.
“The mainstream faction of Umno, headed by Zahid and Najib, would like to pull another Melaka on Ismail Sabri, whom they no longer view as one of their own, whereby he would be almost totally precluded from campaigning in the state election.
“He, (Ismail Sabri) thus will not be able to claim political credit on the expected lopsided win by Umno and would be humiliated as a lame-duck prime minister ostracised by his own party.
“So, the boiling point is not in Johor, but arguably high up in PWTC,” he told The Vibes, referring to Umno’s party headquarters in the capital.
Senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research Prof Azmi Hassan agreed with Oh, saying that a victory in Johor would also further justify Zahid’s assertion and calls from other voices within Umno for the general election to be called as soon as possible.
Azmi also highlighted that PH and Bersatu’s current weak form, evident in their performances during the recent Melaka and Sarawak elections is another point Umno is trying to capitalise on.
Azmi did stress, however, that it is not the case of Umno and BN having grown in influence over their opponents, but rather how Bersatu and PH have lost ground since the May 2018 general election.
“They (Umno) know they are not strong because there are factions in Umno that want Bersatu, and other factions that don’t.
“But if you factor in the weakness of Bersatu and PH at this particular juncture right after the Melaka and Sarawak elections, I think you just cannot avoid this push for state election in Johor,” he said.
Azmi did agree with the views of several Umno leaders that political stability is a reasonable justification to go to the polls, saying Hasni as the menteri besar sometimes has his hands tied when faced with pushback from Bersatu over major policy decisions.
“He cannot make drastic or extreme decisions because they are with Bersatu and he needs Bersatu’s consensus.
“But then again, it is also the best time for Umno or BN to form the state government alone without Bersatu, given how Bersatu and PH are at their weakest point right now,” he said.
Talks of the Johor Legislative Assembly being dissolved to pave the way for statewide polls has been rife since the passing of former menteri besar Datuk Osman Sapian who died in December after suffering a stroke a month before. He was the state assemblyman for Kempas.
Osman’s passing meant the Umno-led state government only has a one-seat majority in the state legislative assembly over the Opposition who control 27 seats.
Currently, Umno and BN have 16 seats, while partner Bersatu from Perikatan Nasional has 11 seats, aligned together with the one seat from PAS.
The state’s opposition bloc is led by DAP with 14 seats, while PKR has seven, and Amanah with six.
As it stands, a dissolution of the Johor Legislative Assembly is not due until May next year. – The Vibes, January 20, 2022
