KUALA LUMPUR – Pakatan Harapan (PH) appears to be stuck between a rock and a hard place over whether to allow fledgling party Muda a seat at its table, even as discussions on the youth-based outfit’s intention to join the opposition coalition have begun at a sputtering pace.
Snub Muda and face the possibility of a split vote, effectively benefitting Barisan Nasional (BN), the very coalition they are trying to dethrone.
Embrace the party and risk potential internal rift, with certain quarters within PH already expressing their reservations. This is especially so in light of the Johor election in March, when Muda was accused of gatecrashing a number of seats.
Rumours have it that the PH camp is currently at odds over the matter. DAP, in particular, is said to be pushing for a merger. It is understood that most within PKR are against the idea.
This explains the lack of urgency within the coalition to expedite negotiations, despite intense speculations that the 15th general election (GE15) will take place by the end of the year.
As negotiations continue into what could be the final weeks of the current parliamentary term, political analysts tell The Vibes that the ball is now in PH’s court to decide what risk the coalition is willing to take.
Consensus needed to weigh pros and cons
For National Professor Council senior fellow Prof Jeniri Amir, adopting Muda into PH brings more negative impact than added benefit.
He cited events that unfolded during the Johor election as proof that fractures are bound to take place internally.
There is still prevalent animosity to date, as evident from statements issued by various PKR leaders, since Muda expressed its desire to join the coalition almost two weeks ago.
During the Johor polls, Muda was accused of gatecrashing PH seats such as Puteri Wangsa, where PKR was said to have done much of the legwork before it was “raided” by the former.
The year-old party was also slammed for placing a candidate directly against PKR in Larkin, despite an electoral understanding.
Jeniri said this animosity could be costly if it is not nipped in the bud, should there be a decision to favour cooperation.
However, Jeniri also warned that if both political entities enter the general election their separate ways, BN would be the ultimate winner.
Votes would be split among an already divided opposition bloc which also comprises Pejuang and Warisan, among others.
In that sense, it will be disadvantageous for PH to reject Muda. Then again, if the resentment within is strong, would they risk cooperation?” he said.
“There must be a consensus, or things will backfire on them.”
Meanwhile, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun concurred that if no alliance is formed, the vote splitting caused by Muda might prove fatal for PH, particularly in closely contested seats.
A compromise would be to pool together their resources to each win some seats, although the other component parties of PH are likely to win many more seats than Muda,” he said.
In Larkin, while a combined vote between PKR and Muda would still be insufficient to swing the result in their favour, the 12.87% vote share of the fledgling party is considered significant for seats where there is a slim majority.
What about Muda’s decision to express interest in joining PH so close to the election?
Oh said this could just be down to the realisation that the party would not be able to make any significant impact in the polls if it goes solo.
“It must have dawned on Muda that while it can attract a sizable chunk of urban votes, these would ultimately not be enough to win them seats if they come up against PH, which will win significantly more votes,” he said.
What’s in it for Pakatan?
According to Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Azmil Tayeb, while Muda is set to gain much from joining PH, the same cannot be said about the latter.
“Muda has almost non-existent grassroots machinery, and PH can help them with that. It stands to have more chances to gain seats competing under the PH logo.
(But) I don’t think PH has much to benefit. PH is better off fielding its own young candidates, which it has plenty of, for the seats asked by Muda,” he said.
This echoes a statement issued by Ampang PKR secretary Aidi Amin on September 9.
Aidi cast doubt on the argument from certain quarters that having a political party representing the youth is a novelty.
He pointed out that PKR, too, has consistently included youth representation in various capacities and nurtured young political figures in the likes of Nurul Izzah Anwar, Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, Chang Lih Kang and Fahmi Fadzil.
Azmil also does not believe that a direct clash between Muda and PH will hurt the latter.
“In the grand scheme of things, no. Voters generally are rational and they will choose a party that is competitive and has a chance of winning,” he said.
Prof Kartini Aboo Talib of the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia similarly said that PH – in particular PKR – does not realistically need Muda, as it already has its own youth wings to rally support from the younger voters.
“Muda seems to be redundant,” she said when contacted. – The Vibes, September 19, 2022
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