SHAH ALAM – Political analysts have indicated that new and popular candidates and voter turnout are expected to be determining factors to see which political party will emerge victorious in Selangor in the upcoming 15th general election.
Political analyst Azmi Hassan said Selangor Barisan Nasional’s (BN) plan to field new faces will be an advantage in attracting support in the state with the highest number of voters in Malaysia, as the party is now in a more comfortable position than it was in GE14.
“New faces need not be young candidates, in the case of Finance Minister Datuk Seri Tengku Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz and Umno Supreme Council member Isham Jalil,” he said.
Following Perikatan Nasional’s decision to go solo for the polls and the emergence of Gerakan Tanah Air and Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), he said the situation would indirectly favour BN as the opposition would face split votes among Malays.
Selangor BN is reportedly fielding 21 new faces, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) is fielding a mix of old and new faces it claims are winnable candidates.
PH held 16 out of 22 federal seats in Selangor, while BN held one, Bersatu three, and PBM two prior to the dissolution of Parliament.
Azmi said the Selangor PH government’s decision to not dissolve the state assembly in tandem with Parliament may come back to haunt the coalition, as voters living outside the state need to return to vote for a second time and may be burdened by costs and time.
Meanwhile Noor Nirwandy Mat Noordin, a security and political analyst from Universiti Teknologi Mara’s Centre For Media And Information Warfare Studies, said Selangor BN’s current plan is similar to the coalition’s plans during the Johor and Melaka elections, which proved effective.
He cautioned that BN needed to choose proven and worthy candidates to attract voters in competing with PH’s strategy, which usually utilises glamourous candidates in strategic areas to garner popular votes.
Noor Nirwandy said although PH had won the most seats compared with other parties, the situation in GE15 would be different, and he expected pressure for the coalition to win this time around.
“The Johor and Melaka elections proved that BN has the advantage when voter turnout is low, and if the same situation occurs in GE15, then PH will be hard-pressed to win, but if voter turnout is high, over 70%, then BN will face pressure in gaining support from non-party members,” he said.
Universiti Utara Malaysia political analyst Muhammad Fuad Othman also agreed with Noor Nirwandy, saying that BN’s new faces in Selangor prove that the strategy used in the Johor and Melaka elections were viewed as effective.
“But victory was determined by low voter turnout in both elections, so their rivals would have a better chance of winning if the voter turnout is high,” he said.
Fuad said parties need to ensure they have the best candidates and not merely rely on certain sentiments only, as voters are tired and confused by the current national political situation.
“Also, the large number of new voters in this general election will be a big challenge for all parties. Those who can win over new voters will surely have an advantage,” he added.
Malaysians will go to the polls on November 19 to elect a new Parliament, with nominations being held on November 5 and early voting taking place on November 15. – Bernama, October 28, 2022
