GEORGE TOWN – The outcomes of the state elections for Kedah and Penang tomorrow are expected to hinge on a combination of factors, from the voter turnout rate to Undi-18 voters, internal squabbling, and fatigue, with some even pointing to the weather.
These are the X factors that will determine which coalition wins in what is shaping up to be a bruising battle, particularly for the hearts and minds of the Malay-Muslim electorate.
Both states are also holding state elections separately from parliamentary polling for the first time, and so the focus on state matters for all parties is quite intense.
Most sides in the political fray have actually been accused of committing “own goals” in the eyes of their audiences during the two-week campaign period.
The national unity force of Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) is not exactly leading the electoral race as it has made blunders in the leadup, while its main rival Perikatan Nasional (PN) has also had its share of faults.
In Kedah, outspoken but popular PN caretaker menteri besar Datuk Seri Muhammed Sanusi Md Nor got himself into a spate of legal wrangles.
Sanusi is staring at libel actions thrown at him by tycoon Tan Sri Vincent Tan Chee Yioun and his Selangor counterpart Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari for claims he made at a rally.
On top of it, he was also charged with two counts of insulting the Selangor sultan.
Voters may not be keen to see him at the helm of the state if he is going to be preoccupied with his legal battles while also administering the highly demanding state.
Kedah is a primed battleground state because since 2008 voters in the country’s “rice bowl” have seen their governments change at least thrice.
As a refresher, in early 2020, the Kedah PH government under menteri besar Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir fell to a backdoor government, which appointed PAS’ Jeneri assemblyman Sanusi after the latter managed to secure the backing of 23 assemblymen from the 36 state seats.
Sanusi is considered a popular but divisive leader in the country for his strong oratorical skills, but lacking in substance when faced with issues such as the economy.
Kedah is different altogether from neighbouring Penang, which is polished and affluent while the former stands as one of the poorest states in the country.
Unnerving actions by candidates
Political scientist Datuk Sivamurugan Pandian says this indicates the simple mindset of Kedah voters who crave the fulfilment of basic needs and are not riveted by issues like human rights.
Their voting pattern would be more driven by emotion. Hence, Sanusi with his rhetoric has emerged to become widely accepted and appreciated, said the Universiti Sains Malaysia academician.
This gives the PAS election machinery – which Sanusi commands – a slight edge when voting commences, but there are factors which may swing the state to PH-BN, he added.
The pendulum may swing if the young favour the alliance in the last round, and if their core supporters come out big tomorrow.
Under the glaring eyes of the voters, both PH-BN and PN have committed a fair share of troubling decisions, which have unnerved their supporters and fence-sitters alike.
In Penang, PH took for granted the supermajority it enjoyed in the last election in 2018 when it won 38 of the 40 state seats, which may be impacted this time by visible dissatisfaction over the candidates’ list – especially in DAP.
There are speculations that even with the bold move to renew the PH lineup, the relatively inexperienced elected representatives may not have the necessary clout to deal with the polemics of race, religion, inflation, the economy, climate change and public healthcare.
Three days before campaigning halts, former deputy chief minister II P. Ramasamy from DAP decided to call it quits on the democratic socialist party, joining his other former aides – David Marshel and Satees Muniandy – who are now contesting as independents against their former party.
It has left a bitter aftertaste within PH with some pinning the blame on the party’s national leaders, who have been accused of having a dictatorial style.
“They (Ramasamy and aides) are just sour grapes. But they do not realise that they are harming their own coalition in their outrage towards other leaders,” said DAP’s Jelutong MP RSN Rayer.
This has put off its supporters and fence-sitters, which may contribute to a lower turnout.
If Penang PH loses supermajority
This would make it virtually impossible for PH to replicate its 2018 resounding success, said political analyst Asman Jusoh.
Asman said both PH and PN need a high turnout in Kedah and Penang respectively if they want to fare reasonably well.
In Penang, PH, led by DAP, has been growing from strength to strength since 2008, but this time, the victory may not be morally convincing, said Sivamurugan.
“Politically it is still a win for PH, but if they lose their supermajority, they are not in a morally commanding position to lead the state unlike before,” he added.
Like in any “team sport”, both PH and PN need a combination of factors to secure a win.
The relatively untapped factor is the Undi-18 and automatically registered voters.
In Kedah, there are some two million registered voters and in Penang around 1.4 million, of which the majority are those ages between 21 and 40.
The dominant voting preference of those aged 18 to 21 is a mystery, as they do not openly display their political affection and many stay away from the traditional rallies, preferring to catch goings-on online.
Political fatigue among public
Another element likely to impact the results is fatigue among the voters, who have been witnessing major political events in sequence since 2020 from the fall of the PH government to its resurgence last year where along the way, there were three other prime ministers.
“They may just want to sleep out the election,” said restaurateur Datuk Gary Nair.
Despite his history of espousing the fight against corruption and his controversial imprisonments, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim may have a daunting task in luring Muslim voters who are on the side of PAS.
His political opponents have been raising the issue of Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi being made a deputy prime minister despite having been slapped with several counts of corruption.
It is a strong battle for Anwar to overcome this perception created by his rivals.
Other states that will also hold elections tomorrow are Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Kelantan and Terengganu.
In all the states, campaigning was as intense online as in person-to-person encounters.
Political analyst Azzi Safar even saw subliminal messaging in the videos which made their debut from Instagram to Tik Tok to Facebook and others
As campaigning draws to an end tonight, it is becoming more apparent that the results are expected to be close with neither state expected to replicate the results in the last state election in 2018.
As the results are announced, it is a fervent hope that the contestants respect the outcome and move on with delivering what the voters aspire for as ultimately, politicians enter elections to serve the electorate – anything less is a travesty. – The Vibes, August 11, 2023
