[UPDATED] GE15: think-tank predicts crushing defeat for Azmin in Gombak

SHAH ALAM – Gombak incumbent MP Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali, who is now defending his seat under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) banner, is expected to suffer a humbling defeat in the coming general election (GE15).

This is based on a survey conducted by Selangor government-linked think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE), which found that Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari will likely secure a landslide victory.

IDE executive manager Prof Datuk Mohammad Redzuan Othman said based on the study and assuming a turnout rate of 76.97% of the overall 206,015 eligible voters, PH is predicted to obtain a total of 80,502 votes.

Azmin is expected to garner only 34,597 votes, effectively handing Amirudin a handsome majority of 56,575.

Barisan Nasional’s Datuk Megat Zulkarnain Omardin, meanwhile, is set to come in third, with the support of 23,927 votes.

The remaining 19,543 votes are unaccounted for, indicating fence sitters and possibly hinting at some support for the other two candidates in the constituency: Pejuang’s Aziz Jamaludin Mohd Tahir and independent Zulkifli Ahmad.

Based on the breakdown of the projected support, Redzuan said the majority of Chinese (76%) and Indian (81%) voters are expected to be with PH, while the coalition is predicted to obtain a comfortable backing of 45% of the Malays.

He added that the survey had a sample size of about 500 respondents picked via a stratified random sampling method and was conducted between November 10 and 12.

Azmin has been a three-term MP in Gombak, having contested and won the seat in 2008, 2013 and 2018, all under the PKR ticket.

The former PKR deputy president later defected in February 2020 during the Sheraton Move political crisis then and later joined Bersatu, the linchpin of PN. 

The study by IDE also found that 53.2% of the respondents in Gombak had confidence in PH chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim leading the country as the next prime minister. 

PN chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, which came in second, trailed with only 16.5%, followed by caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob (13.8%), PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang (5.7%), former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad (1%) and Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (0.2%). 

The remaining 9.6% had other candidates in mind other than the ones listed. 

At the national level, a separate survey conducted between October 21 and 28 in cooperation with Toyo University of Japan, comprising 2,423 respondents from all 222 parliamentary seats, also found that Anwar is the favoured choice for prime minister. 

He garnered 31.5% of the support, followed closely behind by Ismail Sabri (24.9%), Muhyiddin (20.3%), Dr Mahathir (6.9%), Zahid (1.8%) and others (14.1%). 

A total of 30.7% of the respondents also said they would support PH, 27.9% for BN, 12.7% for PN, while 28.7% are still on the fence. 

Redzuan, however, said this should not serve as an indication of the number of seats that will be won by the respective coalitions, adding that voter sentiments change by the day and may influence support. 

The respondents were picked to represent the demography of eligible Malaysian voters, including in terms of gender, age, race and the urban-rural breakdown. 

‘What political fatigue?’

Redzuan dismissed the notion of political fatigue existing among Malaysians, noting that the joint survey with Toyo University found that 79% of respondents expressed their intention of coming out to vote. 

Only 4.6% said they will not be fulfilling their electoral responsibilities, while 16.4% are still undecided, which he said could indicate a high voter turnout on November 19. 

“In our history of general elections, never has the turnout dropped below 70%. BN is entering the polls full of confidence because of the turnout in Johor (54%) and Melaka (65%). But the fact is this time, it is expected to be around 80%.”

Redzuan also expressed his bemusement at what he claims to be strategies taken by BN that would benefit their opponents. 

“For one, they are allowing 13 days of campaigning, and polling will be held on a Saturday. Why not do it on a Wednesday like last year so that the turnout will be low? I don’t understand. 

“On top of this, they have declared a public holiday on November 18 and 19, while (the public servants) will get their salaries earlier. I don’t know what strategy is this, or is it because they know they are going to lose?”

He added that based on the survey, the rising cost of living has been identified as the main issue, with 43.36% respondents listing this as their number one concern. 

This is followed by political stability (18.7%), and corruption and misappropriation (10.75%). 

“Perhaps this is why we are seeing political parties focusing on these issues in their campaigns.” – The Vibes, November 15, 2022