MULTI-cornered contests are expected to once again dominate the Sabah state election, with analysts warning that the fluid political landscape could trigger last-minute negotiations among major coalitions aiming to prevent a vote split that benefits Warisan.
Political analyst Dato Dr Sivamurugan Pandian told The Vibes that personality-driven politics and strong local loyalties remain key features of Sabah’s electoral behaviour.
With no single coalition holding a clear upper hand now, he believes the possibility of last-minute compromises cannot be ruled out.
“Sabah has always been shaped by multi-cornered fights. This election is no different. With no dominant bloc, we may see strategic negotiations and even the emergence of independent candidates as a form of protest,” he said, noting that independents succeeded in winning seats in the 2020 state election.
He added that compromise among coalitions may become necessary to avoid fracturing votes.
“GRS is working with Pakatan Harapan (PH), while PH also cooperates with Barisan Nasional (BN). Whether these three groups can find common ground before nominations will determine the direction of the contest.”
Sharing similar concerns, senior fellow Dr. Azmi Hassan of the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research said the political equation in Sabah remains unpredictable, but he does not dismiss the possibility of a last-minute alignment between GRS and UMNO to prevent Warisan from capitalising on split votes.
“GRS and UMNO may find common cause in stopping Warisan from gaining an advantage,” he said.
“Warisan is on a high going solo, but a divided field could still create surprises.”
Dr. Azmi also anticipates the possibility of upsets. “There will be a giant killer — someone unexpected taking down a big name. That’s the nature of Sabah politics,” he added.
Despite Warisan’s rising momentum, Dr. Azmi predicts that GRS will ultimately maintain its position.
“In the end, I foresee GRS holding on to status quo.”
With overlapping alliances, complex local dynamics and potential last-minute deals, analysts agree that the coming Sabah election will be one of the most unpredictable in recent years.
According to statistics from the EC, there are 1,784,843 registered voters eligible to cast their ballots for the 73 seats.
They comprise 1,760,417 ordinary voters, 11,697 military personnel and their spouses, as well as 12,729 police personnel and their spouses.
As of 8 pm on Thursday, PKR had announced 10 candidates and DAP seven, all of whom will contest under the Pakatan Harapan (PH) ticket.
Barisan Nasional (BN), comprising UMNO, MCA, Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS), will contest 45 seats.
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) has also announced that it will contest 55 seats, with candidates from Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan Rakyat), Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS), United Sabah National Organisation (USNO), Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) and Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah (Harapan Rakyat).
Parti Warisan (Warisan), Parti Perpaduan Rakyat Sabah (PPRS), and Parti Impian Sabah have each announced that they will contest all 73 seats, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) will contest 41.
Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) and Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) have each announced that they will contest 40 seats.
Meanwhile, Parti Kerjasama Anak Negeri will field 26 candidates, Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) will contest six seats, and 17 Independent candidates running under the banner of the ‘Gelombang Hitam’ (Black Wave) movement will also contest the state polls. – November 15, 2025
