By Murray Hunter
IN the days following the Negeri Sembilan state election, many pundits are emerging with narratives that the Malay votes have been united behind the Barisan Nasional, and voters punished Pakatan Harapan. However, the Negeri Sembilan election in reality was just a return to historical trends.
One headline says that the BN-PN wins a supermajority.
However, the reality has been that the Barisan Nasional (BN) has been the government of Negeri Sembilan for generations.
The DAP had always won votes in urban clusters around the state. The latest election results reflect this.
PAS, for many years, has had its own clusters of support within the state where there are longtime “PAS communities” established.
The results don’t reflect a so-called “Malay unity”.
On the contrary, the results show that the Malay vote is split into two distinct camps, one led by UMNO and the other led by PAS. This reflects what exists within much of the peninsula.
Back in 2023, UMNO lost two seats in the state election.
In 2026, UMNO was able to win one seat back.
The MCA, relying on the Barisan Nasional brand and Malay vote, was able to win over two DAP seats.
Meanwhile, PAS was able to gain one more seat, giving it four in the new assembly.
The total BN and PN vote was 357,474, or 56% of a 72.64% turnout.
PH mustered 256,386 votes or 40% of the aggregate vote, when most pundits had written the coalition off.
UMNO received 26.44% of the aggregate vote, up from 2023, but still slightly lower than the 27% of the vote it mustered in 2018. Hardly a blue wave.
What is interesting is that PKR actually received 12.33% of the aggregate vote, up from 8.83% in 2023.
However, it lost three seats, one to PAS in Ampangan, one to UMNO in Pilah, and one to Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin’s new Wawasan in Sikamat.
The DAP vote went down from 26% in 20.73% this time around. The party lost two seats, going down from 11 to 9.
The problem for PH is that it just hasn’t been able to pick up any Malay support over the last three years.
Considering the unpopularity echoed through the media for Pakatan Harapan, the result is respectable, considering its aggregate vote actually went up.
Many expected a much more cataclysmic result.
Hamzah’s Wawasan didn’t suffer the same fate as Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli’s Bersama in Johor.
Wawasan won three seats, doing better than Bersatu did back in 2023, winning two seats.
But the PAS-Wawasan vote this time round is well under the PN vote back in 2023. However, this is a good beginning for Wawasan.
Bersatu lost its deposits in 23 seats, and its future as a major party is now in question.
Two big mistakes were made by Pakatan Harapan in the election.
Anthony Loke should not have run for a state seat in the Negeri Sembilan election. He should have given it to another candidate and saved his ‘electoral face’. Loke will have to live this down, and hopefully the DAP won't make hasty decisions based on the result.
The former Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun running in the UMNO safe seat of Linggi was a suicide decision. The party should never have let him do that.
The MCA won two seats, but this was basically on the branding of BN.
The MCA has not evolved as a potential threat to the DAP, even though an MCA candidate defeated the DAP secretary-general.
Consequently, there are no real winners in yesterday’s election, just a return to the status quo.
There is no blue/green wave, just an imaginary ripple here.
For PH, there are lessons. The DAP has to soften its hard rhetoric of face voter rebuttal.
The DAP lost a lot of support as its winning margins are way down.
If that was reflected in Penang and Perak, it would be devastating for the party.
It's time for PH to give voters a solid vision of where it wants to go, now that it is free of UMNO electorally.
UMNO has only returned to its 2018 vote level. This, back in 2018, wasn’t enough to win. – August 2, 2026
