NO political coalition is expected to emerge with a commanding two-thirds majority in tomorrow’s Negeri Sembilan election, with the next state government likely to be decided by a narrow margin.
The focus is now shifting to a handful of marginal constituencies where small swings in voter sentiment could determine whether Pakatan Harapan (PH) retains power, or whether Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) can upset the current balance.
With 36 seats at stake, any coalition needs 19 seats to form the state government.
Analysts believe the race remains too close to call, with no party entering polling day with a decisive advantage.
PH, which currently leads the state administration, is banking on its incumbency and ground support, while BN is hoping to ride on the momentum of its Johor victory to make further gains.
BN, meanwhile, is seeking to expand its influence by capitalising on Malay voter support.
PH Negeri Sembilan chairman Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun acknowledged that securing a two-thirds majority would be a difficult task, but said several marginal seats could still change hands.
He pointed to constituencies narrowly won by BN in the previous election as potential battlegrounds that could determine the outcome.
“Getting a two-thirds majority will be difficult for any party today. But we cannot dismiss the possibility of changes in marginal seats, especially with some voters still undecided.
“These seats can shift at any time, even on polling day,” he said.
In the 2023 state election, PH won 17 seats while BN secured 14, allowing the two coalitions to form the state government.
This time, however, the political landscape is more competitive, with BN attempting to regain lost ground and PN positioning itself as a stronger challenger.
Negeri Sembilan Umno chief Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias said BN was confident of improving its performance but declined to reveal the party’s seat target.
He said the confidence came from growing support observed during the campaign period.
“We have seen encouraging and significant increases in support from the people across the state.
“We hope this support will translate into votes on Aug 1,” he said.
Bersatu, meanwhile, maintained that it remains in the contest, with state leadership chairman Mohamad Hanifah Abu Baker saying the fight was not over.
“Yes, we are still in the race,” he said.
Political analyst Mujibu Abd Muis of Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) said Negeri Sembilan’s election was shaping up to be a more competitive contest compared with Johor, with the outcome difficult to predict.
He said the state’s mixed demographics and political history made it harder for any coalition to claim dominance.
While BN enters the race with the advantage of its Johor victory and tactical cooperation with PN that could strengthen support among Malay voters, Mujibu said Negeri Sembilan’s political dynamics were far more complex.
“Unlike Johor, no coalition has a clear advantage that would allow it to comfortably form the government,” he said. – July 31, 2026
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