THE coming Melaka state election will be a test not only of who controls the 28 seats in the state assembly, but also of how well Pakatan Harapan (PH) can manage its increasingly complicated relationship with Barisan Nasional (BN) - political analyst Dr Azrie Azeh said.
He said the election could provide an early indication of how the political landscape might develop ahead of the 16th general election (GE16), particularly after Umno’s 2026 general assembly.
According to Azrie, PH faces a delicate balancing act.
It needs to work with BN where necessary while ensuring that the cooperation does not weaken its own political identity, reform agenda or ability to build support on the ground.
“PRN Melaka should not be read merely as a contest to determine control of 28 state assembly seats,” he said in an analysis published today.
“More than that, it is a strategic test of PH’s resilience, the ability of its component parties to manage their relationship with BN, and the ability of the Madani government to convert governing legitimacy into electoral legitimacy.”
Azrie explained Melaka could become an important testing ground for the political arrangements that may eventually shape GE16.
The timing is significant, with Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi having called for GE16 to be brought forward and said Umno wants to regain a stronger mandate to lead the country rather than remain merely a supporting component in government.
For PH, this means dealing with a partner that is also looking to rebuild its own political strength.
BN wants to hold on to 21 seats
BN’s position is straightforward. It wants to defend the 21 seats it won in the 2021 state election, when PH took five and Perikatan Nasional (PN) two.
Azrie said the result remains relevant, but should not be treated as a guarantee of what will happen in the next election.
The political landscape has changed considerably since 2021, with parties that were once competing against one another now sharing power at the federal level.
He also pointed to the difference between state and parliamentary elections.
BN did not win any of Melaka’s parliamentary seats in the 2022 general election, showing that electoral strength at one level does not necessarily translate directly to another.
“The strength of history is not the same as current strength,” he added.
Melaka BN chairman Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh has said the coalition intends to defend all 21 seats.
On Sept 6, Zahid gave Ab Rauf the mandate to negotiate with other parties ahead of the state election, provided any cooperation contributes to BN’s victory and enables it to continue leading the state.
Ab Rauf later said BN had yet to hold formal negotiations with any party and that discussions would only take place after the state assembly was dissolved.
Azrie said the 21 seats should therefore be seen as BN’s starting point in any negotiations rather than an indication that the eventual distribution of seats is already settled.
For PH, he said, the focus should be on the strength of individual constituencies today.
That includes voter demographics, previous margins, voting trends, candidate appeal, local issues and the strength of party machinery.
PH cannot rely on Putrajaya alone
Azrie said the Melaka election would also force PH to confront a question it has faced since entering the federal government — whether its position in Putrajaya has translated into stronger support for the coalition and its component parties.
Being in government, he said, did not automatically mean voters would support PH at state level.
A voter could be satisfied with the federal government but still choose another party or candidate in a state election.
Local candidates and issues can make a significant difference.
This is particularly relevant for PKR, which needs to show that its political strength extends beyond its national leadership.
AMK chief Muhammad Kamil Munim has also stressed the need for PKR to strengthen its grassroots machinery, saying popularity alone was not enough.
Azrie said Melaka would provide a practical test of whether the party could turn its national profile into a stronger organisation and support at constituency level.
Nurul Izzah adds another test for PKR
The developments involving PKR deputy president Nurul Izzah Anwar also come at a sensitive time for the party.
Izzah remains deputy president but has taken temporary leave from her party duties, with Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail entrusted with carrying out the functions of the post in the interim.
Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari remains in charge of the party’s election machinery.
Azrie said the issue should not be viewed only in terms of personalities or positions.
Instead, it provides a test of whether PKR’s structures can continue functioning effectively when responsibilities are redistributed among its leaders.
“If the distribution of functions and leadership continuity can proceed without affecting election preparations, this can become a measure of institutional maturity,” he said.
Izzah’s continued emphasis on the reform agenda also raises a broader question for PH, Azrie said: how does the coalition distinguish its record in government from the political message it carried when it was in opposition?
For PH, the answer will ultimately depend on what voters believe has changed during its time in government.
DAP and Amanah have roles to play
Azrie said PH’s position in Melaka could not be assessed through PKR alone.
DAP and Amanah remain important components of the coalition, each with their own political networks and voter bases.
PKR has sought to appeal across different sections of the electorate, while DAP has a strong organisational base and Amanah offers PH a platform to reach Malay and Muslim voters through its moderate Islamic positioning.
The challenge, Azrie said, is to make those differences work together.
“PH does not need every party to become the same, but every party needs to bring value to the coalition,” he said.
That becomes particularly important if PH and BN eventually negotiate an electoral arrangement.
The issue cannot simply be reduced to who contests which seat.
PN still matters
Any calculation between PH and BN will also have to take PN into account.
PN may have won only two seats in 2021, but a three-cornered contest can change the outcome in individual constituencies, particularly where the competing parties are closely matched.
Azrie said PH and BN would therefore need to assess each seat on its own merits.
There may be constituencies where cooperation makes sense.
There may also be seats where PH or BN believes it has sufficient strength to contest independently.
The deciding factor, he said, should be the actual electoral situation on the ground rather than assumptions based solely on the previous election.
A bigger test ahead of GE16
The importance of Melaka ultimately goes beyond the state election itself.
For BN, retaining a significant portion of its 21 seats would strengthen its argument that its organisational base remains intact and could give Umno greater leverage ahead of GE16.
For PH, the challenge is different.
It needs to show that its position in the federal government has produced an electoral base of its own.
Azrie said that made the relationship between PH and BN one of the most important questions surrounding the state election.
“The most important question is not simply whether PH should cooperate with BN, but under what circumstances such cooperation increases the chances of victory and under what circumstances it erodes PH’s political autonomy,” he said.
The eventual seat tally will remain the clearest measure of who won the election.
But Azrie said the longer-term picture would also depend on changes in vote share, the strength of party machinery, the performance of candidates and the ability of each coalition to expand its support.
In that sense, Melaka may offer an early indication of whether the political arrangement created by the unity government can survive the pressures of electoral competition.
The state may have only 28 assembly seats.
But the political calculations surrounding them could reach all the way to GE16. – September 17, 2026
