KUALA LUMPUR – Political observers have poured cold water on Gerakan’s ambition to wrest Penang, which has been a DAP fortress since 2008.
They said DAP’s hold on the northern state, coupled with Gerakan’s diminished influence, means that the latter is unlikely to cause any impact there ahead of the 15th general election, which is due by September 2023.
This view persists even after Gerakan was accepted as a component of the ruling Perikatan Nasional on Thursday.
Two of the analysts The Vibes spoke to went as far as predicting that the party will not win a single seat in Penang, which has 13 parliamentary and 40 state constituencies.
“I don’t think so, to be honest. It’s wishful thinking,” said Universiti Sains Malaysia political scientist Azmil Mohd Tayeb when asked about the party’s prospect of making headway in the state.
Before its crushing defeat in 2008, Penang had been a stronghold of Gerakan, which helmed the state for decades from 1969 mostly under the Barisan Nasional banner.
It lost every seat it contested there in GE12, and has not won a single one since.
Azmil, who is based in Penang, said Gerakan has not made much effort to mobilise its machinery at the grassroots level since its heyday, adding that not many in the state want to see it regain control.
“You don’t see them on the ground, as opposed to the current DAP government, which is hugely popular here, especially on the island.
“Gerakan tried to tap into pockets of public frustration at DAP, especially over mega projects like the undersea tunnel and Penang Transport Master Plan. But from my observation, it’s improbable that the party will wrest the state.”
Gerakan president Datuk Dominic Lau told The Vibes that the party’s focus remains winning back Penang, after he received a letter of acceptance on the party joining PN by coalition chairman and Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin two days ago.
Independent political analyst Khoo Kay Peng, too, does not believe Gerakan will have an impact in Penang, especially since it lacks the influential and significant leaders of the past.
He said the fact that the party does not have a worthy chief minister-elect, seen as a “criterion” among Penangites, does not spell good news for it.
This is compounded by the possibility of multi-cornered fights in the state, with Umno expected to pull away from its alliance with PN soon.
Should this happen, BN may field candidates from its lynchpin and MCA, who will vie with those from Gerakan and the opposition Pakatan Harapan.
“No chance (for Gerakan). The outcome will probably still be the same as the past few elections – zero seats,” said Khoo.
Focus on rebuilding base first
Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said Gerakan should not set such a lofty target, and instead, focus on rebuilding its support base.
Though the party is expected to regain its foothold in the federal government with its inclusion in PN, he said, a move for Penang is unlikely to bear fruit, for now.
“Given that Penang is likely to remain a DAP stronghold for the foreseeable future, Gerakan is well advised to be less ambitious, and instead, focus on maintaining some sort of presence in the state.”
Any benefit that Gerakan may enjoy from being part of PN is likely to be short-lived, as the coalition’s chances of emerging victorious in GE15 appear slim, he said.
Universiti Putra Malaysia’s Prof Jayum Jawan said Gerakan will have a hard time trying to secure support, especially from the Chinese voters that it usually targets, as it has DAP and MCA to contend with.
“Gerakan is down and perhaps out. It will have a very huge task to resurrect itself as the third force among the Chinese community.
“DAP seems to have established itself among the Chinese, while MCA could make a comeback, although perhaps not mounting a serious enough challenge to dislodge the former in Penang.” – The Vibes, February 13, 2021
