KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia could have recorded a daily Covid-19 tally exceeding 1,000 today had the government not taken measures to contain the disease’s spread, said Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah.
The health director-general said the figure could climb to more than 3,000 by the end of the month if travel curbs and the conditional movement control order (CMCO) were not implemented in places with a high caseload.
To date, the CMCO has been imposed in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and Sabah, while several areas in other states are under the stricter targeted enhanced movement control order.
Dr Noor Hisham, in a Facebook Live broadcast, said these measures have reduced the basic reproduction rate of the coronavirus – expressed as r-nought (r0) – to 1.5 today from 2.2 on September 20, shortly before the third wave hit the country.
The r0 is used to predict the average number of subsequent infections each new case could cause. For instance, an r0 of 4 means every positive case has the potential to infect four other people.
“At the start of the first movement control order on March 18, the r0 was at 3.5. We managed to reduce this to 0.3 following various positive actions taken by the government, and with the compliance of the rakyat.
“On September 7, the r0 rose to 1.7, in light of the high number of cases in Kedah and Sabah at the time. And since the third wave, the r0 increased to 2.2 on September 20.
“However, in four weeks, we have managed to reduce this to 1.5. This means all the measures being taken have managed to control cases from increasing exponentially.”
Based on the ministry’s projection, he said, infections will continue to rise in the coming days, but not drastically.
“According to the projection, if our r0 remains at 1.5, we can expect daily cases of between 1,300 and 2,000. This is what I’m worried about. But if everyone works together, we should be able to contain it. It’s not impossible,” said Dr Noor Hisham.
On concerns that hospitals will soon be operating beyond capacity, he said this should not be the case as recoveries are increasing daily.
To a question on whether the September 26 Sabah election contributed to the surge in infections, he said: “It might have, but this is because people did not comply with our SOPs.” – The Vibes, October 18, 2020
