MALAYSIA could face its hottest year on record in 2026 or 2027 if a forecast El Niño event materialises in the second half of this year, climate experts have warned, raising concerns over water security, agriculture and wildfire risk.
Prof Emeritus Fredolin Tangang of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia said climate models currently indicate a 60 to 70 per cent probability that El Niño will develop later this year and persist into 2027.
“If the El Niño does materialise, it could possibly push 2026 or 2027 as the warmest year on record, replacing 2024.
“It would also result in Indonesia experiencing drier and warmer conditions as well,” he said yesterday.
The warning comes after 2024 was confirmed as the warmest year globally, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, with Malaysia recording a daily average temperature of 27.55°C. That represented a 0.38 per cent increase compared with the 1991–2020 average. Temperatures in 2024 were influenced by an El Niño episode that began in 2023 before weakening in early 2024.
El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern linked to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months. Such episodes can raise temperatures by between 0.5°C and 2°C above normal levels.
Prof Fredolin cautioned that a renewed El Niño could have widespread national impact, depending on its intensity.
“He said all states nationwide could be impacted by El Niño depending on its strength.
“They could be affected across different periods during the El Niño,” he said.
He also warned that reduced rainfall could lower dam water levels and affect crop growth.
Malaysia’s Meteorological Department, MetMalaysia, has already projected a generally drier weather pattern between February and July. In its long-range outlook dated 5 February, the department said preliminary assessments indicated that dry conditions were likely to significantly affect western Sarawak and could persist until the end of the forecast period.
Hot and dry weather is also expected in other regions, particularly in the western and southern parts of Peninsular Malaysia, especially in the middle to latter stages of the outlook period.
“Such conditions may heighten the risk of forest fires, potentially resulting in episodes of haze.
“This anticipated weather pattern is consistent with a projected shift towards El Niño conditions,” the report stated.
However, Emeritus Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah of Universiti Malaya urged caution, saying closer monitoring was required before confirming a shift towards El Niño conditions.
He noted that both Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia are influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole during El Niño episodes, which can worsen air quality and contribute to coral bleaching.
Referring to the 2019 El Niño, Prof Azizan said that although the episode was weak, it coincided with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase, leading to particularly dry conditions in the region.
“Extensive burning between July and September that year across Sumatra and Kalimantan wreaked havoc on air quality, raising it to unhealthy levels,” he added.
Media reports indicate that Malaysia has experienced 12 El Niño episodes since records began, with the first occurring between 1951 and 1952. The 1997–1998 event was also associated with a water crisis in the country.
With the possibility of another prolonged dry spell on the horizon, authorities are expected to intensify monitoring of reservoir levels, agricultural conditions and fire risk in the months ahead. - February 20, 2026
