KUALA LUMPUR – The two-day Umno General Assembly 2020 (PAU20), which kicks off today, will be decisive in charting the future of the country’s oldest Malay-based political organisation – particularly for the 15th general election.
Of late, there have been many grouses among the party grassroots and leadership over the fact that Umno has been playing second fiddle in the Perikatan Nasional coalition led by Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Bersatu.
One of the reasons is that Muhyiddin is said to have steamrolled Umno’s Sabah chief minister candidate, Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, in the state election last year.
In a tit-for-tat move that further fractured their relationship, Umno and DAP initiated a move to oust Bersatu’s Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu from the Perak menteri besar’s post last December, replacing him with state Umno liaison chief Datuk Saarani Mohamad.
Many Umno members support leaving PN in GE15
At the division level, Johor Umno’s Pulai chief, Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed, was the first to make the call to support the party leadership’s decision at a meeting in Janda Baik to cut ties with Bersatu and contest GE15 alone.
He told The Vibes in an earlier interview that staying with Bersatu is a dangerous proposition, seeing that voters could punish Umno over the economic downturn caused by Covid-19, which critics have deemed a failure of the PN administration.
“Being with Bersatu is dangerous because people are suffering from economic pain, as well as the divisive politics that Tan Sri Muhyiddin is playing, where he is buying up support and splitting up political parties.”
The former deputy home minister took a pragmatic approach on coalition-forming after the elections, saying he does not discount the possibility of Umno working with DAP and PKR once the ballots have been tallied.
This week saw 12 out of Kelantan’s 14 Umno divisions voicing their support for ending the party’s alliance with Bersatu in GE15.
Chapter chief Datuk Ahmad Jazlan Yaakub previously told The Vibes that Kelantanese delegates will raise the issue of cutting ties with the party’s PN partner.
A Perak Umno rep, who requested anonymity, said many party members have had it with Muhyiddin’s scheme to “destroy the party” and “steal” its representatives.
“Look at what Faizal did. He appointed Datuk Aznel Ibrahim (Perak Umno’s Pengkalan Hulu assemblyman) as his political secretary. That was the final straw that triggered us to remove him. We will raise this issue at PAU20.
“Many of us support our president’s stance to contest alone in the next elections and figure out who we will cooperate with to form a government after the elections. I do hope PAS will stay with us and not betray the Muafakat Nasional alliance that we formed before PN existed.”
However, he conceded that there are factions in Umno that prefer the party to stay in PN, but said if these members, particularly Federal Territories Minister Tan Sri Annuar Musa, are set on remaining with Bersatu, they should leave the party and join the prime minister.
“Let’s see if they can retain their seats if they are with Muhyiddin. We will fight them.”
It is also telling that the Muhyiddin administration seems to fear defeat in GE15 with the Election Commission’s move to delay the implementation of Undi18 and automatic voter registration, which was supposed to be done in July.
The announcement by EC chairman Datuk Abdul Ghani Salleh on the postponement of the implementation until after September 1 next year has been criticised by members of Muhyiddin’s cabinet, namely Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jalamuddin, and Youth and Sports Minister Datuk Seri Reezal Merican Naina Merican.
That these two Umno ministers have remained silent on the tiff between their party and Bersatu, but chose to voice their shock and displeasure at the EC’s decision, signals the possibility that even members of the Barisan Nasional lynchpin who hold executive positions are getting fed up with Muhyiddin.
Umno-PKR alliance to be hot topic
A pair of political pundits are at odds over how Umno delegates will address the issues facing the party at its annual gathering, but they agreed that there will be heated debates between the pro- and anti-Bersatu factions.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Assoc Prof Kartini Aboo Talib believes that pro-PN delegates are bigger in number, especially with regard to the possibility of working with PKR and long-time nemesis DAP.
“The pro-PN faction could be more than the faction that is pro-court cluster – if Umno wants to survive better, the party has to reject the court cluster, allow new leaders to take place organically, or reform the party for the greatest good.
“Working with DAP will be a bit difficult for Umno – both have different ideas on how to lead the nation. Working with PKR, I think the idea was favoured by Zahid, and not the majority of Umno members,” she said, referring to party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
“Both Umno and PKR have to negotiate hard on who will be prime minister. And, that is the very core aim for Anwar, who has waited long enough to claim the throne, and I don’t think Umno is willing to give it away just like that, even when they are working side by side,” added Kartini, referencing PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
She advocated for Umno to maintain its ties with Bersatu and remain in PN, saying seat negotiations will clear up issues in GE15.
Her view on a possible Umno-PKR power struggle if they decide to form a coalition post-polls was shared by Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun.
He said most of the grouses arising from Umno’s participation in PN are due to the party playing a secondary leadership role, and therefore, being subjected to what it perceives as oppression from coalition head Bersatu.
“Umno would not like to play second fiddle again to PKR, with, for example, the PKR leader becoming the future prime minister. The other obstacle is likely collaboration by extension with DAP, which Umno has vilified for long.
“But, Anwar is unlikely to concede his quest to be prime minister, and is unlikely to ditch DAP, which will again win a significant number of seats.”
Unlike Kartini, however, Oh believes that the unhappiness among the party grassroots at Umno’s position in PN outweighs the faction supporting participation in the coalition – namely those backing Annuar.
Those who are against contesting under the PN banner appear to outnumber the members who are for it, he said, but the meeting this weekend will determine the party’s future.
“Whether Umno should continue to support the ruling coalition will perhaps be the hottest issue to be debated in this round.
“Judging from the sentiments at the division and branch meetings in recent months, it appears that dissatisfaction with Umno’s secondary role in the ruling coalition has risen tremendously.
“It remains to be seen if these negative sentiments will eventually amount to an overwhelming position during the debates to dissociate Umno from the ruling coalition, outweighing those supporting continued backing for the coalition.”
Aside from the Zahid-Datuk Seri Najib Razak faction, he said, there are at least two other overlapping ones, including those backing Khairy and Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein, who have been subtly manoeuvring themselves to obtain top positions in the party and government.
At the same time, there are cabinet members who want to ensure their ministerial positions are secure in the present or future ruling coalition.
However, said Oh, the “cabinet cluster” has already been subjected to Muhyiddin’s divisive strategy.
“The cabinet cluster has also been subjected to undoubtedly the divide-and-rule political tactic vis-a-vis Umno, and will require concrete assurance from the mainstream faction that their positions would be at least secure, if not enhanced, in any future ruling coalition that excludes Bersatu.”
Can Zahid survive?
The two scholars also disagreed on Zahid’s fate.
Oh said despite complaints about the Umno president, the party still has a feudal mindset, where the top leadership is not directly questioned.
“Umno politics is usually quite superficially deferential, although at any one time, the undercurrents for unseating, and thereby replacing, the top leadership are definitely ongoing.
“As such, most of the sniping directed at Zahid will be obliquely done, barring a few outspoken delegates’ daring criticism. The attack is likely to focus on his pending court cases, as his policy move to distance the party from Bersatu is apparently a popular one within the party ranks.”
Kartini, on the other hand, believes that Zahid will come under siege and face calls to step down.
“Umno members will demand that Zahid resign. It is time for him to let go of the position and focus on dealing with the corruption cases against him.” – The Vibes, March 27, 2021
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