KUALA LUMPUR – Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob will likely remain as prime minister if Umno decides to sack him for ignoring calls to dissolve Parliament and alleged requests to intervene in graft cases of key party figures, observers said.
Parliament observer Ong Ooi Heng said even if Umno gives him the boot, Ismail Sabri can still retain the support of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalitions, as well as those from Sabah and Sarawak.
He projected that Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is facing a string of corruption charges, might only be able to convince around 15 Umno MPs to withdraw support – as others, such as Umno ministers and deputies, could still support Ismail Sabri.
Owing to this, Ong said Ismail Sabri might not even need to call for a confidence vote in Parliament should he be sacked from Umno.
“This administration is different compared to the one led by (Tan Sri) Muhyiddin (Yassin) as Ismail Sabri has already signed an MoU (memorandum of understanding) with Pakatan Harapan,” Ong told The Vibes when contacted yesterday.
“It’s only a big problem if the likes of PH withdraw support for Ismail Sabri.”
So Ismail Sabri can still retain the support of more than 112 MPs from PN, PH, and East Malaysia, apart from some Umno parliamentarians – despite any potential sacking, he added.
On Saturday, Ismail Sabri drew jeers and boos from party members when Zahid mentioned his name during his special address at a special Umno gathering attended by about 3,000 members.
This happened purportedly due to his not caving in to pressure to intervene in former Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s SRC International corruption case.
Ismail Sabri, along with other notable Umno cabinet members such as Tan Sri Annuar Musa and Khairy Jamaluddin, among others, were not present at the briefing held following Najib’s imprisonment last Tuesday.
The party members’ discontent with Ismail Sabri was palpable, as he is largely seen as incapable of defending the party’s interests. Some even questioned why he was not in attendance to show his support.
In his speech, Zahid focused on the supposed injustice against Najib and stressed that the party will not abandon the former prime minister.
When Zahid went on to explain that an election is necessary as the government led by Ismail Sabri is “hybrid” in nature, the 3,000-odd crowd of Umno supporters booed at the mere mention of the Bera MP’s name.
Last week, Umno warlords reportedly gave the prime minister what appears to be an ultimatum, which was to fulfil their demands on the elections and the removal of the attorney-general and chief justice or face being sacked as the party’s vice-president.
Will there be a confidence vote?
However, Ong said Umno will have to consider the consequences of sacking Ismail Sabri or withdrawing support for the prime minister, which is why such a move is unlikely to unfold.
“Once you sack the prime minister, you are forcing all ministers and deputies and other Umno leaders to take sides,” he explained.
He added that Ismail Sabri is already making some compromises to the demands by bringing the tabling of Budget 2023 forward to October 7, paving way for elections any time between October and December.
“In one of the scenarios, Ismail Sabri may want to wait for the budget to be approved before he calls for a dissolution,” Ong said.
Echoing Ong, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said an Umno dismissal would not necessarily remove Ismail Sabri as prime minister.
“The honourable thing for a PM to do is to call for a confidence vote whenever he doesn’t feel like he still commands the majority,” Oh said.
“In any case, PH’s and PN’s parliamentary support should carry him to a majority, even if Umno withdraws its support for him.”
Meanwhile, Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Azmil Tayeb said it is unlikely for Ismail Sabri to be removed from the party.
“I don’t think he has to (call for a confidence vote) as the election is looming closer. He might lose if such a vote is called,” Azmil said.
“He currently has the government’s resources at his disposal to consolidate his support within the party, especially with the election campaign,” Azmil said.
“It’s a much better strategy to do that than to call for a vote of confidence.” – The Vibes, August 29, 2022
