Could main Sheraton Move defectors survive GE15 and beyond?

KUALA LUMPUR – Having been labelled as “traitors”, “frogs”, and “political opportunists,” could the main actors in the Sheraton Move survive the coming general election?

This question has been playing on the minds of observers, pundits, and those who voted for Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) reform agenda in the last general election.

Ever since the move, the country has been fraught with political instability, and the reasons behind the “betrayal” of PH and the people’s mandate depends on who you ask.

What is certain, however, is that the country entered an unprecedented period of political uncertainty, which saw the erosion of public confidence in the government and overall democratic system. 

These issues were compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic – which caused an economic crisis that the country is still addressing – and emphasised the need for a rock-solid administration.

While it was an orchestrated effort between Bersatu, disgruntled PKR reps, and the strange bedfellows of Umno and PAS, no one has earned more scorn than Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali.

This is because Azmin is said to have led 11 PKR parliamentarians who defected from PH to join the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government led by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

Alongside Azmin, the other 10 MPs are Datuk Zuraida Kamaruddin (Ampang), Datuk Seri Saifuddin Abdullah (Indera Mahkota), Baru Bian (Selangau), Datuk Kamaruddin Jaafar (Bandar Tun Razak), Datuk Mansor Othman (Nibong Tebal), Datuk Mohd Rashid Hasnon (Batu Pahat), Datuk Seri Edmund Santhara Kumar Ramanaidu (Segamat), Datuk Ali Biju (Saratok), Datuk Willie Mongin (Puncak Borneo), and Datuk Jonathan Yasin (Ranau).

Yet, two years down the road, a few of these MPs have parted ways with PN, citing numerous reasons such as incompatibility or simply irreconcilable differences.

A lot has happened since the Sheraton Move in February 2020 as Umno and its Barisan Nasional (BN) components have decided to go solo in the looming 15th general election (GE15), while Bersatu and PAS have remained within the PN pact.

Moreover, splinter parties – including Muda, Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), and Pejuang, among others – have been formed, suggesting that the days of grand coalitions are over.

While debates about the political survivability of the main Sheraton Move instigators rage on, all eyes will be trained on Azmin and his close backer Zuraida.

Despite receiving harsh criticism, Azmin – who fashions himself as a “reluctant politician” – is not one to be underestimated, having won Gombak with a massive 48,721-vote majority under a PKR ticket in the 2018 national polls.

On Tuesday, Azmin confirmed that he will be defending Gombak, a constituency he had served since 2008 – and which is overwhelmingly Malay, with over 70% of the electorate in the seat from the community.

However, challenges have mounted for Azmin in Gombak as PKR’s machinery has heavily campaigned in the constituency since 2020, even during the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Azmin even faced a suit by a group of Gombak voters for allegedly failing to perform his fiduciary duties and provide representations for his constituents, but the case was dismissed.

His long-time ally-turned-foe Selangor Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari has also led the charge to plug the “gaps” in Gombak following the Sheraton Move.

While Azmin has managed to leverage his position as economic affairs minister under PH and international trade and industry minister under both Muhyiddin and Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, his heavy involvement in the Sheraton Move has undoubtedly made him one of PH’s biggest nemeses.

What of Zuraida?

Things have taken an interesting turn for Zuraida, having left Bersatu and later joining the fledgling PBM, of which she is now president.

Claiming that Bersatu did not represent her “DNA”, Zuraida opted for a multiracial party instead and subsequently lobbied for PBM to be with BN.

In GE14, Zuraida won Ampang with an overwhelming 41,956-vote majority, but it is another seat where PKR has aggressively campaigned since 2020.

Similarly, Zuraida had held the seat since 2008 and has done extensive groundwork since. However, the seat’s voter composition remains an obstacle in her aim to defend it.

With Ampang comprising 55% Malay, 34% Chinese, and 9% Indian voters, Zuraida is fully aware that heading a multiracial party would be more appealing to the seat’s electorate rather than sticking with ethnocentric Bersatu.

Styling herself “Ibu Bangsa Malaysia” – a moniker she picked up since helming PBM – Zuraida understands that she and her party have a better chance at political survival if they join BN as a multiracial outfit. 

But the eleventh-hour effort to cosy up to BN may prove to be too little too late for Zuraida and her party, as political pundits said they have yet to show a strong support base, let alone any chance of survival beyond GE15.

Double-edged sword aligning with Bersatu

Similarly, incumbent Segamat MP Santhara, who recently defected from Bersatu to PBM, also jumped on the multi-ethnic bandwagon.

Like Zuraida, Santhara may have realised that Bersatu – although positioned as an alternative for the Malays – has failed to achieve this target, evident in its dismal performances in the Melaka and Johor elections.

In both state polls, Bersatu had only won two seats respectively despite being part of the government.

Without backing from a strong coalition, Santhara appears to be walking on thin ice, as he had won Segamat in 2018 with a 5,476 majority out of a total of 46,170 ballots cast.

Even before the Sheraton Move in 2020, Bersatu has held a reputation for inviting “frogs”, having taken in 16 Umno MPs since 2018.

The Malay-based party was also dealt with an embarrassing blow when Muhyiddin was forced to resign as prime minister due to pressure from Umno, suggesting that he and Bersatu had been outplayed in their own machinations. 

It also does not bode well for the other nine former PKR MPs who have thrown in their lot with Bersatu, as the party lacks grassroots support in the Malay heartlands and is mainly reliant on PAS in such areas.

While the likes of Azmin and Zuraida have a massive following or platform to mitigate potential political blowback, their peers from the Sheraton Move are unlikely to survive GE15 unscathed. – The Vibes, October 27, 2022