BN’s gamble: greater chance of win now with floods than next year, observers say

KUALA LUMPUR – Barisan Nasional (BN) would have calculated the impact of potential floods on its performance in the 15th general election (GE15) and likely found that it could face defeat if polls are held next year, political observers said.

They view the hurried dissolution of Parliament yesterday as a sign of concern that prolonging the current term could have negative political ramifications on BN, such as the emergence of other issues that would hurt the coalition’s chances at victory.

Speaking to The Vibes, Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Awang Pawi said that in deciding on a date, Umno and BN would have considered multiple factors key to determining the outcome of the election. 

For one, postponing the polls to next year allows political rivals more time to make electoral preparations. 

This would render useless the momentum currently on BN’s side following its landslide victories in the Melaka and Johor elections, and potentially give the upper hand to a largely fractured opposition bloc.

This is in reference to entities like Pakatan Harapan (PH), Muda, Warisan, and Pejuang, which are failing to find a consensus to form a grand coalition. 

On top of this, Awang Azman said, BN would also have felt that delaying the polls could possibly offer the opposition more opportunity to exploit various issues that could be used as political ammunition.

“They are worried that more unforeseen issues, like the scandal involving the littoral combat ships, could crop up in the future. I don’t think they would want to take that risk. 

“So, for BN, yes, there is obviously a risk that holding an election amid possible floods might motivate the public to vote them out, but the risk of holding off the election till next year is bigger,” he said. 

Awang Azman added that with Ismail Sabri being the caretaker prime minister following Parliament’s dissolution, this gives the ruling coalition a further edge to push for popularity. 

For BN, no sense in delaying polls

National Council of Professors chairman Datuk Shamsul Amri Baharuddin shares a similar view – that BN’s push for an early election stems from its belief that it should not accord its enemies more time to prepare. 

The director at the Institute of Ethnic Studies in Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia believes BN would also want to capitalise on its recent state election victories, which it might interpret as a sign that the voting trend is in its favour. 

“If you are going for a holiday, the faster you pack up and get ready, the faster you can leave. Others, meanwhile, might only be starting to pack their bags,” he said when contacted. 

“The idea is, who is most prepared for the election? In this case, Umno and BN, hence the push. 

“Most of their old machinery is still operating optimally. They have long gotten past their 2018 defeat, and their victories in the state elections have injected them with much-needed enthusiasm. So why would they want to delay the election?”

Shamsul also downplayed suggestions that the expected floods could influence the outcome of the election, saying the rakyat today are politically mature enough not to base their votes on a single factor. 

He claimed that this narrative is merely an attempt by the opposition to score political brownie points, given their lack of major current issues in attracting voters. 

The 1Malaysia Development Bhd mega corruption scandal, which has been a major sore point for Umno and BN in the last election, is no longer seen as an appealing topic, given the jailing and incarceration of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak. 

Instead, Shamsul predicts that the biggest determining factor for the election result could be voter turnout, with an opposition victory only likely to hinge on high polling day participation. 

Turnout will not be entirely dependent on floods, he noted.

“If the people don’t like you, floods or not, they will not vote for you. I don’t think people will be mad just because the election is done during the monsoon period. Plus, not the whole country will be affected; only certain hotspots.” 

Caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced Parliament’s dissolution yesterday, paving the way for GE15 to be held within the next 60 days. 

It is widely expected that polling will be conducted in early November ahead of an impending northeast monsoon from the middle of next month until March, that is projected to bring about major floods. 

The announcement puts an end to weeks of political merry-go-round and speculations over the election date, and comes on the back of immense pressure from Umno’s top guns on Ismail Sabri to dissolve Parliament. – The Vibes, October 11, 2022