Ahead of GE15, Pakatan share of Malay support in peninsula down three-fold

KUALA LUMPUR – Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) popularity among Malays in the peninsula was at 10.2% as of October 2, this year, data from a survey showed.

This is in contrast to its share of 25% to 30% of the Malay vote in the 2018 general election when Bersatu and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad were part of the coalition.

The data as of October 2, by polling firm Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research, also showed that Barisan Nasional (BN) had the largest share of support from the Malay community, at 37%, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) had 14.6%.

However, a large chunk of Malays – at 34.9% – were undecided about which coalition they supported, while the remaining 3.3% went to “other parties”.

The data, focusing on voters in Peninsular Malaysia, was part of a presentation by the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas) given earlier this month and used by The Vibes with permission from Merdeka Centre programme director Ibrahim Suffian.

The data is from before October and prior to the dissolution of Parliament on October 10. The 15th general election (GE15) will now be held on November 19. Nomination day is this Saturday.

Malays form the majority of Malaysia’s population, at 62.6%. Among the Chinese meanwhile, PH’s share as of October 2 was 51.3%, while BN’s was just 6% and PN’s 0.3%. 

Undecideds among the Chinese stood at 36.6%, while 5.8% went to other parties.

In 2018, about 95% of Chinese voters had supported PH.

Among Indians, PH had the highest share of support at 54.7%, while BN had 20.9%. PN had only 1.2%, while other parties had 7%. Undecideds among the Indian community stood at 16.2%.

Dr Mahathir had been the draw for Malay votes in the 2018 election, which PH won by riding on public anger against then prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and his involvement in the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal.

He had quit Umno because of Najib and formed Bersatu – which allied with PKR, DAP, and Amanah as PH – before becoming prime minister of the PH government that lasted just 22 months.

Defections by senior PKR leaders as well as from Dr Mahathir’s own party Bersatu led to the collapse of the PH government. 

Bersatu now heads PN – of which Islamist party PAS and multi-racial Gerakan are members – while Dr Mahathir has formed Pejuang and heads the Gerakan Tanah Air coalition of small Malay-Muslim parties.

Observers have noted how this will further split the already divided Malay vote, making a clear win by any single coalition in GE15 difficult. 

Fifty-seven of Parliament’s 222 seats in this election, however, are in Sarawak and Sabah, where local coalitions Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah are expected to side with BN if it performs strongly in the peninsula.

Another wild card in GE15 is the addition of more than six million new voters that include the 18- to 20-year-old age group, and those who have been automatically registered as voters. – The Vibes, November 1, 2022